AUD/NZD: a pullback.

At first glance, we can notice a pullback in the chart, from the previous top at 1,075.

The pullback comes from the upper band of the BBs. It is also highlighted by a candlestick pattern: specifically, a shooting star; its upper shadow (maximum) represents the stop loss of a short trading strategy; then, the red color and the following red candles are a reliable signal, for this purpose.

Anyway, it is too early to speak about a trend reversal even if this signal is a good starting point. 

Let's look at the next trading sessions, at the crossover, respectively, of the RSI (repulsion from the overbought area, 70), of the MACD (cross of the signal and MACD line) and of the momentum (from above to below, the zero line).

Chart from Markets.com

Chart from Markets.com

With the confirmation of the trend reversal, it will be interesting the evolution of the chart framework, in particular, about the test of the yellow area, the rectangle, that previously, represented a trading range area, before the current bullish trend. The lows of the rectangle are the main references for the reason that these minimums and support levels were very important, in the past (38.20% FIBO retracement, 1.031/1.032). The same thing for the upper line (61.80% FIBO level, 1.053).

Finally, it is interesting also to look at the volatility: BBs, upper, lower and the median line (red line); the slope and the cross of the EMAs bundle (they are very flattened in the rectangle and TR area; otherwise, they are widely spaced in the bullish and bearish momentum). We can say the same of the parabolic SAR (the black dots).

NZD/USD : chart framework.

At first glance, we can notice the beginning of a downtrend (this last one should be confirmed in the next trading sessions, of course). This is due to :

• A Doji candlestick pattern (it emphasizes both weakness and indecision in an uptrend ; if it is confirmed in the subsequent sessions, it is a good signal) ;

• Linked to the previous aspect, the are also two red candles ;

• The BBs shows the overcoming of the currency cross on the upper band (for this purpose, see the shadow of the Doji) ;

• The RSI shows an overbought area (above 70, see the bullish trendline of the indicator and its blue line) ;

• The upper shadow of the Doji represents a repulsion area (look at the previous top and at the horizontal line).

Chart from Markets.com

Let's have a look at the following charts. We can notice that the bullish trend is well set, marked by the parallel channel. However, there are the first symptoms of subsidence, due to the above-mentioned reasons and due to other indications. The MACD shows the crossing of the red and blue lines and crossing of the histograms, from top to bottom (over line zero).

Moreover, we are in the proximity of the test of 23.6% FIBO level and near the median line (BBs) and EMA 20 (a break of this level, it would be a great short signal ; see the yellow ellipse). 

The second bearish target will be the 50% FIBO level (this last one is also the double bottom, see the green arrows and blue ellipse). 

Chart from Markets.com

Chart from Markets.com

In the following chart, the parabolic SAR is set, in the form of black crosses. There is a first black cross above the candles. We need almost two or three other crosses for a clear and short signal. 

So, lets' follow the next trading sessions.

Chart from Markets.com

Finally, we can say that there is not a strong trend reversal, at the moment. It is too early to speak about it. In spite of this, there are good signals of the weakening of the current trend : if it will be confirmed, it will allow us to set up a bearish trading strategy with the first target 23.60% FIBO level and the second target 50% FIBO level. We can take a few more risks by anticipating and benefit from the movement, with a tight stop loss just above the maximum of the Doji (at about 0.68).

COCOA : chart framework.

At first glance, we can notice a volatility exhaust: there is a repulsion from the previous top (0% FIBO level); the commodity is in the upper line of the BBs, then the RSI shows an overbought momentum (the red line crosses from above to below the higher limit at about 70.00). 

The bullish impulse seems to stop (see the white candles): anyway, it represents just a break in the uptrend; for this reason, look at the parallel channel that clearly highlights the bullish trend (mid/long time frame); there was only a sideways interlude (light-blue rectangle).

About that, the rectangle pattern is a reference area useful to set up a trading strategy, respectively short with the break of the same or long if the area stays immaculate (in other words, accumulation area with target the previous maximums). The middle area (so mentioned) is limited also by the 23.60% FIBO level and 61.80% FIBO level (look at the green and red arrows). 

Not randomly, the 23.60% FIBO level is limited by the yellow line: this last one is the median value of the real body (long white candle); generally, it is a strong reference. 

Chart from Markets.com

The situation is the same if we analyze the following chart: the slope, the direction and the intersections of EMA bundle (9, 20, 40) show the market direction and trend; bearish, bullish with the parallel channel (with a lateral trend, see the rectangle), then volatility exhaust.

Another signal is given by the MACD: we are near the crossover of the signal line with the MACD. 

Chart from Markets.com

Lastly, if we consider a different time frame (240), it is just a confirmation of what is said above: there is the bullish trend with a break due to the volatility exhaust; there is an additional reference, at about 2616 (the top of the white candle and the last minimum). 

We need to monitor the next trading sessions: at present, the trend is bullish of course with a small discharge of the strength of the buyers.

Chart from Markets.com

EUR/USD : bearish trend.

The currency cross is clearly bearish. In this way, let's look at the parallel channel and at its trendlines. 

The support line is at about 1.09 (0% FIBO level). The FIBO retracements start with the 100% level at the previous top (1.155). We can notice that 50% (a key level) is marked by a previous bottom (it is placed at the lows of two long candles). 

Lately, we can notice a bounce. However, it could represent just a volatility exhaust from oversold (see the BBs). In the medium term, the trend is still bearish. In the short term, as I said previously, there is a bounce with the test of 23.60% FIBO level (1.104).

Chart from Markets.com

With a weekly timeframe, the bearish trend is moreover confirmed: see the slope of the EMA bundle, the parallel channel (the second one). On the other hand, the bearish trend is not as emphasized as the previous bullish trend of the year 2017.

Chart from Markets.com

To conclude, let's take a look at the last trend (it is more interesting, due to the rebound in progress, as explained above). The rebound started from the minimum at about 1.09. With the last trading sessions, he had a setback: there is a potential overbought (see the RSI indicator); then, the candles left the upper band of the BBs. For this reason, at the moment, there is a clear test of the previous maximum at about 1.104-1.105. The next trading sessions will be very important to understand the market direction (just a pullback or the beginning of a bearish trend also in the short term). Indeed, it is too early to speak about a bearish trend in the short term: the candles are quite far from the midline of the pitchfork; then, there is not the break of the 23.60% FIBO level (1.09-1.104).

Chart from Markets.com