Tuesday, September 17, 2019

CRUDE OIL : bullish momentum (dumped).

We can notice that the bullish momentum with the last upside has been dampened, for the reason that the white candle is represented by a high wave pattern. The shadows show an equilibrium among the bearish and bullish strengths. 
Then, the gap up has been covered as quickly as possible: in this way, the following candle is a black candle that neutralized the previous candle. 

Chart from Markets.com

The chart shows also the FIBO retracements: 38.20% and 23.60% FIBO levels are respectively at the low of the black candle (see the gap down) and at the previous minimums.  
At the moment, in order to set up a trading strategy, it needs to understand the market direction: the high wave could represent a trading range area; only with a break of the upper or of the lower limit (see the green and red arrows), we could set a bullish or bearish strategy. 

Sunday, September 1, 2019

COFFEE : technical analysis.

At first glance, we can notice a break in the downtrend. This last one started in July.
The previous trend was bullish, see the parallel channel. 
The break of the downtrend is bordered by the two dotted lines (at about 95 and 100): the 95 value represents also the previous support line and the 100 value is fixed at the maximum of the black Marubozu candle.
The break in the downtrend is also highlighted by the flattening of the MACD indicator and by the proximity of the three lines of the BBs (in this way, the volatility is fairly limited). The real bodies of the candles are not so wide and there aren't so many shadows, compared to the previous ones. 
There are also two references: the top at about 125 and the bottom at about 87.
See the image below. 

Chart from Markets.com

If we use another timeframe, for example, 4H timeframe, we can get a focus.
The break (from August to September) in the downtrend is confirmed, too. The lack in the slope of the EMA bundle highlighted this concern while in the previous situations, the slope is so marked and the flattening is totally faraway. 

Chart from Markets.com

To conclude, pay attention to the two references at 95 and 100. In this way, there is a trading range area that can be used to set up a trading strategy. With the break respectively of the upper area or of the lower area, we could set up another trading strategy, bullish or bearish. As usual, it needs other signals that confirm that hypothesis.